Chatroom Log Tuesday

July 10, 2013

in Speculation

[18:17:47] TRC: Asked Khalil, “the Iraqi Central Bank to begin a project to delete the zeros from the Iraqi currency and restructuring,” explaining that “this project is as old as the central bank has asked the government to wait it out that it’s an appropriate time and today we see that the time has come to start this project.”
[18:18:47] TRC: “central bank announced a few days ago that the reserves of the country reached $ 76 billion and we have Iraqi dinars befitting the country and these deposits and the amounts the order to delete the zeros and structuring currency has become an urgent necessity.”
[18:20:30] teledive: news looks great in the near future to coin a new phrase
[18:21:19] TRC: hmm
[18:21:28] teledive sent an audio message: Oh Boy!
[18:21:38] TRC: hoping it is urgent
[18:21:47] TRC: like this week
[18:22:46] teledive: myself!!!
[18:22:59] TRC: Abtan added, “We believe that the Iraqi dinar must improve against the dollar as it is not true that the reserves of the country today has reached $ 76 billion and the Iraqi dinar at 1280 for one dollar”.
[18:23:11] TRC: :-D
[18:23:31] teledive: that beats spanglish hands down…
[18:23:42] TRC: finance committee meeting Tuesday, would love to have attended
[18:24:23] teledive: me too we would have voted the implementation be today!
[18:24:34] teledive: :-D
[18:24:50] TRC: Abtan and ended by saying that “increase the exchange rate of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar is very vital to the citizen, it is not enough that we have billions in deposits at the central bank against poverty and unemployment rate and weak purchasing power of the citizen”
[18:25:11] TRC: best news day yet..
[18:25:16] teledive: amen!
[18:26:56] design: news really looks great
[18:27:02] teledive: What up design!
[18:27:18] teledive: you are sooo right design!
[18:27:35] teledive: :-)
[18:27:42] design: :)
[18:27:43] teledive: :-D
[18:28:08] design: kind of stunning
[18:28:24] TRC: really not much to speculate now
[18:29:10] TRC: we know rate is going up
[18:29:18] teledive: huge sale on wheel barrows in Iraq, may have to do mail order wallet’s
[18:29:28] TRC: haha
[18:30:14] design: lol
[18:31:32] TRC: seems imminent
[18:31:51] teledive: this week is good!
[18:31:55] TRC: but, wants to see new numbers
[18:32:24] teledive: ???
[18:32:38] TRC: mid month may be the target
[18:33:00] TRC: new exchange rate..new numbers
[18:33:09] design: sounds like a winner!!
[18:33:11] teledive: 6-7 days works
[18:33:27] teledive: duh sorry
[18:33:55] teledive: I drive the short bus!
[20:10:33] AMG: what’s news???
[20:10:59] AMG: Wyndham Hotels
[20:11:12] AMG: ^.^
[20:11:49] AMG: Bright future for Iraq!!
[20:12:18] barnstormers: seems to be getting brighter by the day
[20:15:02] AMG: yup
[20:24:25] bjgjake: still waiting on the dinar yes
[20:24:39] Sweetgirl1956: i didnt even go looking for news today. Gonna take a few days off and read just what is here
[20:24:48] Sweetgirl1956: yes we are, the story of our lives
[20:24:52] Sweetgirl1956: as the dinar turns
[20:24:58] bjgjake: Oyea
[20:26:26] bjgjake: I think it’s coming to much talk nobody paying attenion to it
[20:27:30] bjgjake: 5 days left for them
[21:02:54] ale: needs an rv so i dont have to finish tomorrow lol
[21:26:48] AMG: loves the tariff talk goin round
[21:28:55] teledive: most all the talk is good!
[21:29:10] AMG: says: hmm…………………..”The financial budget for the year “2014″ will arrive in October for approval this year”, not sure I buy that
[21:29:16] Sweetgirl1956: really all we are waiting for is a date and rate
[21:29:48] teledive: brings new meaning to the words “any day now”
[21:29:52] AMG: BUT, they may do something right and quickly for a change……………..
[21:31:51] Sweetgirl1956: and hopin, and wishin
[22:18:02] Sweetgirl1956: That is what I think too T. I think that everything will be in their time. We wait. I think it is sad that the Iraqi people suffer when they could benefit from a currency that has more purchasig power. I wonder who the hell is going to buy all the homes they are building
[22:38:41] TRC: still waiting
[22:39:29] teledive: just today we can hurry up and wait!
[22:39:34] teledive: :)
[22:39:57] TRC: finance committee held meeting Tuesday
[22:40:05] Sweetgirl1956: chewed all my nails off waiting and cant get my dam feet in my mouth, uh I am screwed
[22:40:12] Sweetgirl1956: lol
[22:40:34] TRC: with iraqi banks , and decided its time to change the currency
[22:40:55] TRC: lol
[22:41:10] TRC: hopefully there is no more meetings
[22:41:18] Sweetgirl1956: teledive you there
[22:41:27] teledive: si
[22:41:28] TRC: meetings have become blase
[22:41:31] Sweetgirl1956: that was for you
[22:41:41] Sweetgirl1956: so you could laugh and sleep tonight
[22:41:42] teledive: thanks I needed that
[22:41:54] teledive: :)
[22:42:17] teledive: you da best!
[22:42:23] Sweetgirl1956: now you know why I need a range, I am crazy
[22:44:45] Sweetgirl1956: sam da man, you got any words of wisdom for us
[22:45:31] Sweetgirl1956: i am all out of wisdom
[22:46:47] Sweetgirl1956: because we know that there is nothing else to do, except for Iraq to grow and get things done
[22:47:22] teledive: as Turki put it in the near future
[22:48:11] sam: free float
[22:48:28] Sweetgirl1956: I dont think Iraq knows the definition of near future, coming day, etc
[22:49:09] Sweetgirl1956: Did I tell you guys what my son did when he locked himself in the garage
[22:49:34] teledive: yes the replacement of lock stock and barrel
[22:49:40] teledive: door that is
[22:49:54] teledive: :)
[22:50:15] sam: part 1 of 2 Not since December 2007 has the market exchange rate of the Dinar been less than the auction rate (1190 vs 1215). When this occurs there is proven demand for the Dinar and historically this has been when CBI adjusts the auction rate to reflect a strengthening Dinar.
As of yesterday, per the exchange rates on the CBI’s own website, the gap is deteriorating reflecting a weaker Dinar.
[22:50:20] teledive: and door hinges not only been easier cheaper
[22:50:48] sam: paer 2 of 2 In the past week the Dinar exchange rate has weakened from 1215 to 1230… While the auction rate remains at 1166. This equates to a 6% variance and continues to weaken. I can not see how the CBI will make any adjustment that would strengthen the Dinar … whether it be a free float or an rv…until this spread narrows back to the 2% range.
[22:54:12] TRC: sam ,that is true
[22:54:21] TRC: you know why
[22:55:33] TRC: the paper is losing value because, GDP is growing too fast, and there is too many banknotes in cashbloc, they need to increase value lessen cash bloc in banknotes
[22:56:30] TRC: they need to move the exchange rate into the .01 to 1 dollar range..it is fastest growing economy in the world
[22:57:29] TRC: Iraq has the highest federal budget in middle east outside Turkey
[22:57:57] TRC: but currency is only worth 1190 per dollar
[22:58:12] Sweetgirl1956: school time. somebody ring the bell
[22:58:26] Sweetgirl1956 sent an audio message: Clear Throat
[22:58:42] TRC: no money laundering in iraq
[22:58:49] TRC: good article
[22:59:16] TRC: boasts of potential rv
[23:00:03] TRC: Banking expert and director of the Association of private banks Abdul Aziz Hassoun, that Iraq is devoid of money laundering operations, the presence of foreign financial abundance in the country.
[23:00:17] TRC: :whistle:
[23:01:01] TRC: new budget numbers from finance committee is 144 trillion dinar
[23:01:07] TRC: brb
[23:02:42] Sweetgirl1956: that equals to about 123.5 billion in USD for their budget
[23:02:54] Sweetgirl1956: at an exchange rate of 1166
[23:06:35] TRC: the iraqi politicians are finally starting to get the picture, with their currency
[23:06:42] Sweetgirl1956: I think so too
[23:06:55] TRC: they want it stable,
[23:07:24] TRC: but as long as Iraq gets richer it will lose value unless they shrink cashbloc
[23:07:50] TRC: only way to do that is increase exchange rate
[23:08:16] TRC: it has not moved in many years
[23:08:35] TRC: GDP has tripled in that time
[23:08:57] TRC: CBI reserves doubled
[23:09:13] TRC: Chapter 7 is lifted
[23:12:25] sam: no one seems to know how much Dinar is REALLY out there
[23:13:07] TRC: I have studied it over last couple years from reading various articles
[23:13:18] Sweetgirl1956: Money Supply M2 in Kuwait increased to 31066.40 KWD Million in March of 2013
[23:13:36] Sweetgirl1956: That is Kuwait’s M2
[23:13:44] Sweetgirl1956: in millions
[23:13:50] TRC: CBI stopped issuing new notes for replacements at end of 2011
[23:14:30] Sweetgirl1956: Why is Iraq not publishing their M2 anymore?
[23:14:45] Sweetgirl1956: wanted to ask a question earlier and remembered
[23:15:18] TRC: CBI is not releasing any numbers ..really on their website
[23:15:30] TRC: supposed to be secret
[23:15:34] TRC: lol
[23:15:44] Sweetgirl1956: Money Supply M2 in Iraq increased to 78420 IQD Billion in March of 2013 from 77204 IQD Billion in February of 2013
[23:15:58] TRC: they havent update foreign reserves since last year
[23:16:05] Sweetgirl1956: i found it
[23:16:14] Sweetgirl1956: billion not trillion
[23:16:56] Sweetgirl1956: 78 trillion, can that be right
[23:16:59] TRC: if they dont release replacement notes for worn ones, cash bloc shrinks
[23:17:12] Sweetgirl1956: that includes deposit though
[23:17:58] TRC: end of 2012 was mentioned by one member iraqi official..cashbloc dropped from 33 trillion to 26 trillion in 2012
[23:18:04] Sweetgirl1956: Money Supply M2 in Iraq increased to 78420 IQD Billion in March of 2013 from 77204 IQD Billion in February of 2013. Money Supply M2 in Iraq is reported by the Central Bank of Iraq. Iraq Money Supply M2 averaged 36698.02 IQD Billion from 2004 until 2013, reaching an all time high of 78420.00 IQD Billion in March of 2013 and a record low of 7445.00 IQD Billion in January of 2004. Iraq Money Supply M
[23:18:14] Sweetgirl1956: i read this today
[23:18:27] TRC: cashbloc is banknotes
[23:18:42] TRC: electronic means nothing really
[23:18:42] Sweetgirl1956: will search for that tomorrow
[23:19:20] TRC: if there is too many banknotes , value decreases of the banknote
[23:19:51] sam: $80 billion reserve/ ONLY 30 trillion Dinar = 0.00266666667 — inverted rate would be 375:1 — that is the highest rv that can be afforded currently
[23:20:24] TRC: so if trend continued with decreasing cashbloc, cashbloc should be about 23 trillion to 20 trillion
[23:20:30] sam: compared to 1166:1 — a nice 4x increase but hardly the goldmine all expect
[23:21:10] sam: even with a 20 trillion cash block the rate would be 250:1 — so five fold increase — but that is best case scenario
[23:21:16] TRC: now there is 7 trillion outside Iraq, they have no power over, only can manipulate in country
[23:21:54] TRC: so we can deduce, that cashbloc in iraq is between 13 trillion 16 trillion
[23:22:52] TRC: now..how does Iraq mean to increase exchange rate, adding Chapter 7 ..issues and possible re instatement
[23:22:58] sam: even at 10 trillion that is 125:1 — still not even once cent per Dinar — time for a reality check for all those that want a 1:! exchange
[23:23:11] Sweetgirl1956: Money | INDICATORS Last Previous Highest Lowest Forecast Unit Trend
Interest Rate 6.00 Jun/2013 6.00
Money Supply M0 68893.00 May/2013
Money Supply M1 66112.00 Mar/2013
Money Supply M2 78420.00 Mar/2013 7
[23:23:14] TRC: will they base it on resources
[23:23:40] TRC: or ..according to CBI law
[23:24:19] TRC: we need to wait n see
[23:27:17] sam: not trying to be defensive, but if your logic is so bullet proof why hasnt it been done yet? why arent we seeing the people with money scooping up Dinar … thus increasing the exchange rate without the CBI acting?
[23:27:28] Sweetgirl1956: wow my question got lost. TRC do you think those number I posted are right. I did not get them from CBI but from economic website
[23:27:46] TRC: M2 is electronic money
[23:28:05] Sweetgirl1956: M0
[23:28:32] TRC: with value of banknote it is the amount of banknotes in circulation
[23:28:49] Sweetgirl1956: yeah M0 includes convertible assets
[23:28:57] TRC: those numbers have not been officially released
[23:29:05] Sweetgirl1956: was trying to find the cashbloc
[23:29:13] TRC: wont find it
[23:29:17] sam: SUPPLY/DEMAND STILL DICTATE THAT @1200 exchange rate DINAR IS OVERPRICED … if there was such value here the demand would be so huge the supply would diminish and rate would be strengthening… not weakening
[23:29:49] TRC: officials have been saying 33 trillion repeatedly, but that was numbers in 2011
[23:30:30] TRC: I disagree sam
[23:30:32] sam: back into stealth mode for another few weeks of no rv action — dispite what is predicted or wanted by all that are here,
[23:34:55] Barbwire: It seems to me that if the cbi was only to raise the currency by a small percentage at a time they would have done so by now sam. They seem to be cooking up something much bigger. I pose the question back at you …. why haven’t they done it by now if only small incremental gains is their game plan?
[23:40:09] TRC: The currency is not traded globally, only regionally, both Iran and Syria want USD..it does have some affect , there is huge demand for IQD banknotes right now, since June 27th

Comments on this entry are closed.

Previous post:

Next post: